Previously, he was a Managing Director in the M&A groups at Deutsche Bank and Bank of America and held similar roles in the M&A groups at Citigroup and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette. Mr. Kenney also oversees risk assurance for the Corporation. (2), Vanuatu Credit Transition Model (CTM) Methodology A probability of default rating (PDR) is a corporate family-level opinion of the relative likelihood that . Multiple Approaches to Recovery Calculation: Choose from the settlement method, the trading price method, and the liquidity event method. (2), Bolivia (2), Kazakhstan She is also a key contributor to various Moodys diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives. I am excited about our future and the many ways we will meet our customers evolving needs as we help them to decode risk and unlock opportunity.By investing in our business and acquiring new capabilities, we are enhancing the ways we serve our customers and our ability to reach new markets. You have reached the daily limit of Research email sharings. (2), Malta Looking at the risk profile of the Swedish corporate bond market reveals several notable trends. Dial the AT&T Direct Dial Access code for. (6), Panama - Off Shore If these default rate forecasts crystalize, the pandemic induced default cycle will be relatively mild comparing with prior recessionary default cycles whose peaks ranged from 9.7% to 13.3%. Sullivan has served as the Companys Senior Vice PresidentCorporate Controller since December 2018. (2), SMEs and Mid-caps: A Focus on Funding Ms. He is a Trustee at the University of Pennsylvania and a member of their board of overseers of the School of Engineering and Applied Science. Prior to joining Oppenheimer in 2013, she held a range of senior technology and finance leadership roles at Apollo and PricewaterhouseCoopers. He also managed a global business with a presence in over 100 countries. 15 Dec 2022. Vice President, Global Tax Scott Kapusta joined Moodys in 2007 and is the companys Head of Global Tax. This, combined with Moodys experienced leadership and its talented and diverse workforce, will enable continued generation of enduring value for stockholders and other important stakeholders. In 2021, Ms. The 2.1% fallen angel rate in 2020, although noticeably higher than the 1.1% rate in 2019, matched the long-term average since 1983. Ms. Alsop holds a B.A. Ms Hill currently serves as a director of NetApp, Inc. (September 2013-present) and Celanese Corporation (July 2015-present).Ms Hill has significant experience in business management and leading engineering and operations organizations. (2), Canada Five Moodys-rated corporate issuers defaulted in November, down from the upwardly revised 10 defaulters in October. Ms. Elliott has more than 25 years in senior-level corporate communications roles. (2), Albania Moody's Default and Ratings Analytics team publishes Moody's default studies, ratings transitions and ratings performance studies for corporates, financial institutions, sovereign and sub-sovereign, public finance and infrastructure sectors. Previously, he served as Counsel for Dow Jones & Company from 1995 to 1999 during which he was responsible for SEC compliance, corporate finance, executive compensation, investor relations, and negotiating acquisitions, depositions and joint ventures. (2), Iraq Weekly Market Outlook Markets, Bankers and Analysts Differ on 2021's . London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong (826), Sub-Sovereign He currently serves on the Executive Committee of the Board of Directors. He additionally brings experience in areas such as strategic planning, business development and new product development. Ms Seidman currently serves as a director of General Electric (2018-present), where she has served as the Audit Committee Chair since April 2019, and is also an advisor to Idaciti, Inc., a start-up fintech company (2017-present).Ms Seidman brings regulatory and financial expertise to the Board. (2), Honduras (2), Luxembourg MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS Key underlying assumptions subscription streaming services and other over-the-top providers Our 2022 guidance ranges presented in "2022 Full-Year continue to grow in popularity; Consolidated Guidance" are based on many assumptions in Media, continued growth in sports and relative stability in . Each credit rating agency sets a minimum bond rank to be classified as investment-grade: Standard & Poor's denotes bonds rated BBB- or higher as investment grade. Over the course of the year, we have executed on those priorities, investing in capabilities to better serve a broader range of customers and accelerating our ambition to be the leading global provider of integrated perspectives on risk. (2), Cyprus Despite the severity of the 2020 recession, the current default cycle will peak at a lower rate than those associated with the last three recessions. In that role, she supervised the corporate investigations and anti-money laundering divisions and the companys regulatory examination program. He is admitted to the New York State bar. MOODYS credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors.Additional terms for Japan only: Moody's Japan K.K. Cisco designs, manufactures and sells Internet Protocol (IP)-based networking and other products related to the communications and information technology industry and provides services associated with these products. Senior Vice President,Risk Management & Chief Audit ExecutiveScott Kenney is Senior Vice President Risk Management and Chief Audit Executive of Moodys Corporation. Before Moodys Analytics was formed in 2008, Mr. Tulenko developed extensive customer experience and held several leadership roles in sales, product development and marketing within Moodys. Chief Compliance OfficerHelene Gurian joined Moodys in 2010 and is the companys Chief Compliance Officer. (2), Cambodia Default Trends Global December 2022 Default Report - Excel Data, Default Trends Global: December 2022 Default Report, Structured Finance: November 2022 structured rating transitions, Default Trends Global: Compendium of 2021 corporate defaults, Default Trends - Latin America & Caribbean: Latin American corporate default rate will rise gradually in 2023 as growth stalls, Default Trends Global November 2022 Default Report - Excel Data, Structured Finance - Global : October 2022 structured rating transitions (Jan 2009 - October 2022) - Excel supplement, Structured Finance - Global : October 2022 structured rating transitions (Jan 1993 - October 2022) - Excel supplement, Structured Finance: October 2022 structured rating transitions, Credit Transition Model (CTM) Methodology. All rights reserved. (6), Guernsey From September 2009 to October 2012, Mr. Serafin served as General Manager at Tellme Networks, Inc., a telephone-based applications provider, following its acquisition by Microsoft Corporation. She is also a member of the Dell, Zoom and AWS North American Customer Advisory Boards, and sits on the AEA Investors LP Senior Advisory Council. Moody's Investors Service Risk Quantification Evaluate, manage, and mitigate climate risks and their impacts through scenario analysis, quantitative modelling and stress testing. Her experience as the Chairman of the Financial Accounting Standards Board, executive at a major bank and auditor for a major accounting firm allows her to bring to the Board significant knowledge of global accounting and financial reporting matters in addition to regulatory and senior management experience. She held various executive roles at JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPMorgan) from 1997 through 2015, including Global Chairman of Financial Institutions Group, Co-Head of Banking, Asia Pacific, and Head of Global Debt Capital Markets. (10), Gulf Cooperation Council KMV (currently part of Moody's Analytics) has developed hybrid approaches (Sobehart, J. R., et all, 2000), based on the market calibration of the key factor in the probability of default - Distance to Default7 , which is an index of both a single public company and the market as a whole or its segment. Chief Executive OfficerQualtrics International Inc.Director since July 2021 Zig Serafin, age 48, was appointed a member of the Audit, Governance & Nominating and Compensation & Human Resources Committees of the Board of Directors, effective July 14, 2021. Prior to that, Mr. Howell held a variety of leadership positions since originally joining BAH in 1988. Decisions around classification of assets into different stages and the calculation of the expected credit losses require consideration of forward . In addition to an increase in defaults, there was also a larger number of negative rating actions in 2020, as business disruptions caused a deterioration in credit metrics in many sectors and regions. So far in the fourth quarter there have been nine defaults, four based in China as Chinese real estate developers continue to face funding challenges (see "Asia-Pacific Credit Outlook 2022 China Decelerates, Fed . During his tenure, Mr. Platt has overseen corporate strategic planning and led over $8 billion in M&A and investments to advance Moodys global integrated risk assessment growth strategy. (6), Jordan Earlier in his career, he was also responsible for the research strategy for the ratings businesses and before that led Corporate Finance for the EMEA Region, European Corporates and the EMEA leveraged finance business. From 2019 to 2021, Ms. Kazanjian held various people leadership roles at WeWork, leading into her role as Chief People Officer. To address these risks, they need to go beyond data into context and beyond context into meaning. (2), Sudan (7), United Arab Emirates Prior to Cisco, Ms Hill had a number of engineering roles at various technology companies. (1), Nebraska (1), Wisconsin We introduced the firm's default heterogeneity into the model, and each firm's actual past default situation was considered for Bayesian estimation. Ms. METRICS AND TARGETS 10 SCOPE 2 GHG EMISSION REDUCTION 10. (2), South Africa (5), Palau (2), Kenya "As central banks and governments responded rapidly with significant fiscal and monetary measures to mitigate the impact of the crisis, the pace of defaults also began to slow. Earlier in his more than 30-year financial services career, he held senior positions with Deutsche Bank, Wasserstein Perella Group and Kidder Peabody & Co. Mr. Van Saun has served on a number of boards in both the U.S. and the U.K. (6), Uzbekistan Mr. Platt holds an M.B.A. from The University of Chicago, a B.A. Default Report. Breed was a finalist for the New York CIO of the Year ORBIE Award in the Global category. He has served as the Chief Executive Officer of Qualtrics International Inc. (Qualtrics), the leading experience management software provider, since July 2020 and prior to that as President from January 2019 to July 2020. visit our web site at www.moodys.com. (2), Cayman Islands We also launched the next generation of Supply Chain Catalyst, offering our customers an enterprise-wide view of critical supply chain relationships, including factors such as financial health, sustainability and reputational risk.In response to intense need for interconnected CRE data and analytics to support lending and investing workflows, we accelerated the development of our SaaS workflow solution for CRE lenders and our portfolio monitoring solution for CRE investors. (1), New Technologies "The recession induced by the coronavirus pandemic led to a rapid increase in defaults in 2020", says Moody's Vice President Sharon Ou. For illustrative . Moodys SF Japan K.K. (1361), Asia Pacific (1), Delaware (1), North Carolina Prior to her time at JPMorgan, Ms Esperdy started her banking career at Lehman Brothers. He served as Chief Risk Officer of Citigroup, Inc., a global financial services company, from November 2007 to March 2008. Ba2/BB: This is the next rating down from the highest non-investment grade rating, regarded as speculative. (72), Funds & Asset Management (2), Republic of Moldova In this spirit, Moodys accelerated its own net-zero commitments to 2040, advanced its science-based targets, and published its inaugural Stakeholder Sustainability Report.Moodys has continued to strengthen the firms culture of inclusion, built on respect, diversity and openness. (1369), Global Previously, Ms Seidman was the founder and managing member of a financial reporting consulting firm that served global financial institutions, law firms and accounting firms. By telephone from outside the United States: Modern Slavery and Human Trafficking Statement. (2), Ethiopia Bermudez brings a history of executive experience at a major international financial services company. (91), Austria CREDIT RATINGS, NON-CREDIT ASSESSMENTS (ASSESSMENTS), AND OTHER OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODYS PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. That rate, if realized, would exceed the historical average. (2), Liberia Moody's municipal ratings are opinions of the investment quality of the issues and issues in the US municipal and tax-exempt markets. Governments and others are increasingly using climate analytics to better inform climate mitigation and adaptation measures, and stakeholders are seeking ways to better understand the progress and impact of corporate de-carbonization commitments. (2), Cuba (6), Papua New Guinea The peak baseline estimate for the default rate was lowered from February 2021's 12.1% (as of early August 2020) to March -February 2021's 11.4% (as of early September). (2), Somalia Mr. Bermudez joined Citigroup in 1975 and held leadership positions in other divisions, including equity investments, credit policy and corporate banking from 1984 to 1996. (7), Gabon As in most recovery periods, defaults fell relative to the prior year, with the S&P Global Ratings global speculative-grade corporate default rate falling below 2% for only the eighth time in the past 41 . There are no sessions currently scheduled, Bank Asset & Liability Management Solutions, Buy-Side Asset & Liability Management Solutions, Pension Plan, Endowments, and Consultants, Current Expected Credit Loss Model (CECL), Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Program (ICAAP), Simplified Supervisory Formula Approach (S)SFA, Debt Market Issuance, Analysis & Investing, LEARN MORE ABOUT VIRTUAL CLASSROOM COURSES. Credit Strategy and Standards Index of Reference Documents. +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City (2), Brunei Darussalam Performance reflects expense reimbursements and/or fee waivers made in 2016, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. (6), Mercosur . (6), Turkmenistan (33), Corporates Ms Hill served in a number of positions at Cisco Systems, Inc. from 1997 to 2013, including, among others, Executive Advisor from 2011 to 2013, Senior Vice President, Development Strategy and Operations from 2009 to 2011, Senior Vice President, Access Networking and Services Group from 2008 to 2009 and Senior Vice President, Ethernet Systems and Wireless Technology Group from 2005 to 2008. Prior to joining Moodys, Mr. Kenney was a Managing Director at Deloitte, serving as leader to several internal audit departments, external financial statement audits, Sarbanes-Oxley compliance efforts and large regulatory compliance engagements. (1938), German (1), Virginia five obligor ratings, is not currently in default and has a rated issue in the seniority class. (1), Massachusetts (MSFJ) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK. 001-888-779-5833, So Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires In 2021, Business Services and Hotel, Gaming & Leisure are expected to have the most defaults, followed by Oil & Gas. All data is derived from the Moody'sInvestors Serviceproprietary database of issuer, default, and recovery information. (6), Guinea Dial the AT&T Direct Dial Access code for. The speculative-grade corporate default rate will rise to 4.5% in 12 months from 2.5% in October under our baseline forecasts. While default risks are growing, the global speculative-grade default rate is not likely to rise sharply over the next 12 months. Breed is responsible for all global enterprise technology programs and activities. (8), United States Looking back on my first year as CEO, I am enormously proud of the tremendous dedication and resilience of our employees as we delivered for our stakeholders through yet another year of the pandemic. (1), B3 Negative and Lower (6), Puerto Rico Moodys continues to garner recognition for its diversity, equity and inclusion achievements, including from the Human Rights Campaign Foundation, Bloomberg Gender Equality Index and Working Mother. He is a current member of The Clearing House supervisory board and also serves on the board of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. . MOODYS PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODYS ANALYTICS, INC. He also serves as the Chairman of the Audit Committee of The Bank Policy Institute. Mr. Kenney holds a BS in Accounting from the University of Scranton and is a Certified Public Accountant licensed in New York. This data file precedes Fitch's published 2020 transition and default studies. The probability of default (PD) is the probability of a borrower or debtor defaulting on loan repayments. (91), Nicaragua He began his career in the investment banking division of Credit Suisse First Boston. Mr. Forlenza joined BD in 1980 and served in a number of different capacities, including strategic planning, business development, research and development, and general management in each of BDs segments and in overseas roles. US Credit Compass indicates further deterioration as lending standards tighten and sentiment worsens, The performance of Moody's corporate debt ratings Q2 2022, This publication provides updated measures of the, Corporate defaults more than double in August from the prior month. (2), Greece Prior to that, Mr. Van Saun held a number of senior positions with Bank of New York and later Bank of New York Mellon over an 11-year period. Zig brings a wealth of experience to the board, strengthening the Companys focus on innovation and enhancing operational and technological skillsets.I am grateful to Rob Fauber for his leadership since becoming President and Chief Executive Officer of Moodys Corporation in January 2021. Granularity: Contains granular information from our sister company, Moody'sInvestors Service, includingcomplete rating history at the instrument level, rating outlook and watch-list data, and credit enhancement/backing data, indicating external support. (2), Brazil Prior to joining Moodys in 2021, Ms. Elliott was Executive Vice President-Worldwide Communications at Mastercard and Chief Communications Officer at S&P Global. To the extent permitted by law, MOODYS and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect, special, consequential, or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information, even if MOODYS or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages, including but not limited to: (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODYS.To the extent permitted by law, MOODYS and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity, including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud, willful misconduct or any other type of liability that, for the avoidance of doubt, by law cannot be excluded) on the part of, or any contingency within or beyond the control of, MOODYS or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers, arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information.NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY CREDIT RATING, ASSESSMENT, OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODYS IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.Moodys Investors Service, Inc., a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moodys Corporation (MCO), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moodys Investors Service, Inc. have, prior to assignment of any credit rating, agreed to pay to Moodys Investors Service, Inc. for credit ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,000 to approximately $5,000,000. All rights reserved. In the expanding area of sustainability, COP26 highlighted the importance of stakeholder requests for transparent corporate disclosures that capture both the short- and long-term impacts of physical risk and energy transition risk across industries and business operations. Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold credit ratings from Moodys Investors Service and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at www.moodys.com under the heading Investor Relations Corporate Governance Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy. Additional terms for Australia only: Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODYS affiliate, Moodys Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 and/or Moodys Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable). (2), Kyrgyzstan (2007) paper, which uses the Moody's hazard rate of default (if the credit rating for a firm is not available, . (2), Singapore Prior to that, Ms. Kazanjian worked at Moodys for 11 years, in the Human Resources and Legal organizations, overseeing the Employment Law and Employee Relations teams. Moody's Investors Service's 34th annual default study provides statistics on defaults, losses and rating transitions for corporate bond, loan and deposit issuers over the past year. Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence, as of July 30, 2021. (2), Belarus He leads a team whose mission is to provide near real-time data driven financial insight to support the execution of superior operational and strategic decisions. All rights reserved. (1), Rhode Island He also served on the boards of ConvergEx Inc. from May 2007 to October 2013, Direct Line Insurance Group plc from April 2012 to October 2013 and WorldPay (Ship Midco Limited) from July 2011 to September 2013, and on the franchise board of Lloyds of London from September 2012 to May 2016.Mr. (6), Switzerland http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1258722. Moody's denotes bonds rated Baa3 or higher as investment grade. The trailing 12-month global speculative grade corporate default rate held steady at 2.6%. Prior to this appointment, Mr. Tulenko was Executive Director of Enterprise Risk Solutions from 2013 to October 2019 and Executive Director of Sales, Customer Service and Marketing from 2008 to 2013. (183), Insurance Moody's anticipates revenue growth in the low single-digits in 2021 and 2022, supported by increasing spending by consumers, a pickup in demand for travel and other products that were. He held the additional titles of President from November 2001 to August 2007 and December 2008 to November 2010 and Chairman from October 2007 until June 2015. (2), Saint Lucia There are three major credit rating agencies (Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch) that provide ratings on bond. Chairman of the Board of DirectorsMoodys CorporationDirector since April 2003 Raymond W. McDaniel, Jr., age 64, has been the Chairman of the Board since January 2021. Investment-grade companies have exhibited greater stability in terms of changes in credit quality and ratings. There were differences in default rates across sectors. Learn how Moody's ratings and analysis speak to the relative credit risk of debt instruments and securities across industries and asset classes around the globe. Senior Vice President,Chief Strategy OfficerMr. 12/31/2021: 31.57: 32.25: 11/30/2022: 5.44: 5.53: 12/31/2022: 0.67: 2.31: (8), Sovereign & Supranational As such, these ratings incorporate Moody's assessment of the default probability and loss severity of these issuers and issues. (6), Philippines (2), Antigua and Barbuda He joined Citizens from The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc (RBS), a global banking and financial services group. This includes our Business Resource Groups, which count more than half of our employees as members, and our work to empower our leaders, managers and individual employees in reinforcing an inclusive culture. Anti-Money laundering divisions and the Calculation of the Audit Committee of the expected losses. A Certified Public Accountant licensed in New York State bar of the Swedish corporate bond Market several... Credit Risk and RELATED OPINIONS or COMMENTARY PUBLISHED by Moodys ANALYTICS, INC notable trends regarded as speculative positions originally... 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