The Cook Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. The eight races that the CPI got wrong are indicators of North Carolina's rapidly changing landscape. So is it possible to change over to a superior methodology, like the metric system, or shall we continue to measure our electoral prospects in pounds and feet? A D+0 seat is not a 50/50 district but is top heavy for Democrats (6-1 if my data is correct). Professor of Law, Harvard Law School, Ebersold Chair in Constitutional Law, The Ohio State UniversityView posts , Dean and Sol & Lillian Goldman Professor of Law, Yale Law SchoolView posts , Alfred M. Rankin Professor of Law at Yale Law School (on leave)View posts , Professor of Law, Georgetown University Law CenterView posts , Professor of Law at LMU Loyola Law School, Los Angeles (on leave)View posts , Bouma Fellow in Law and Professor of Law, University of Iowa College of LawView posts , Professor of Law, The George Washington University Law SchoolView posts , James B. McClatchy Professor of Law, In fact, CalifornianInTexas has already gone ahead and started calculating these numbers. In 2022, it was updated to weigh the most recent presidential election more heavily than the prior election. [3] The most recent iteration is the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index, which was released with an updated formula for calculating PVI values. By the most stringent measure, the CPI was accurate in over 94% of legislative races. We saw some of this during the last election when people were salivating about R+1 or R+2 districts. Get more out of that than a PVI. to the discussion. these trends are going to continue and old numbers will miss the story. The PVI is designed to provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength. The 2022 Cook PVI district and state lists in a spreadsheet format are available for active Cook Political Report subscribers.Request the spreadsheet here. Weve hardly been able to write about Texas or Arizona politics for a few years without adding some phrase about the home-state advantage, plus or minus. The most Democratic district in the nation is California's12th, based in Oakland, with a PVI value of D+40. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error. "[1][2][3], The data in the report is compiled by POLIDATA, a political data analysis company, with assistance from National Journal and The Cook Political Report. Democratic support also comes from the areas around major cities. Our full 2022 Cook PVI report is available for subscribers. Large portions of the U.S., particularly in the midwest and deep South skew very heavily Republican, according to the PVI. Refers to the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as used by Charlie Cook, Washington's foremost political handicapper. Im prepared to be enlightened! PVIs are calculated by comparing a district's average Democrat or Republican Party share of the two-party presidential and gubernatorial votes in the past presidential and gubernatorial elections as compared to the states average share of the same.The statewide average in 2012 was approximately 54.57% Democrat to 45.43% Republican.For example, in Washingtons 43rd Legislative District, Democrat candidates won an average 85.85% of the two-party share in the 2012 presidential and gubernatorial elections, respectively.Comparing the average of those two results (85.85%) against the average statewide share of the same (54.57%), the district voted approximately 31 percentage points more Democrat, or D+31. The Cook Political Report first introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each district using the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections as a baseline. Although, us also using PVI only is giving it undeserved credit. The same thing with Cooks PVI. If each state were to vote according to PVI in a tied popular vote occurring in the 2012 Presidential election, excluding the nine electoral votes of the even-PVI state of Colorado, the Democrat would receive 263 electoral votes and the Republican 266. New Yorks 15th district, located in the Bronx, has the highest Democratic score at D+44. The result is a letter (D or R) followed by a number, indicating the extent to which each district leans one way or the other. I agree with the poster above that using a more complete portfolio of state-wide votes would be better. All of these states have several districts that hover just on the border of EVEN, meaning they could swing either way in the next presidential election. A higher percentage of them do than those who vote for the Democrats, but its usually only by 1-2% (51% R/49% D). The PVI score, however, does not always lead to someone from the corresponding party winning a House race. The Cook Political Report is an online source for non-partisan political analysis that many rely on for accurate political forecasting. Given that the data is already entered, we could also look at trends over time. As ManFromMiddletown has repeatedly pointed out over at dKos, the better measure of partisan tendencies would be the average vote share for three down-ballot state offices like Auditor or Insurance Commissioner. Putting them side by side gives us a quick take on short and medium-term trends. I agree with the majority sentiment that it seems to make more sense to compare 2000 district performance with 2000 nationwide performance, not 2004 nationwide performance. The median Electoral College vote (located in Wisconsin) has a PVI score of R+2. These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested. [1][2], The index is updated after each presidential election cycle, as well as after congressional redistricting. Does Cook have an explanation for why he uses this methodology? I mean what we want is a figure that tells us about a very small geographic/demographic area so why do we need to add more variables? If the site only uses SVI, then we are basing our read of the partisan breakdown on a single cycle in which the GOP ticket was headed by a guy their base did not much care for and did not have anywhere close to an even playing field in financial resources as the economy crumbled in spectacular fashion under a sitting president of his party. 2020-23, 53 U.C. 1521 (2018). The Cook Political Report first introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each district using the 1992 and 1996 presidential elections as a baseline. Cook Partisan Voting Index The main feature of the Report is the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) . The PVI was developed by Charles Cook, editor and publisher of Cook, and scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. I would also do voter registration numbers, and Democratic performances in close state races as well. This isnt as big of a deal with the two Bush elections because they were both so close, but comparing Kerrys 2004 district numbers with Obamas nationwide numbers produces some pretty serious gaps. July 13, 2022, 7:27 am redistricting Dan Tokaji. The data is useful but kind of screwy. and Academic Affairs and But maybe I have completely the wrong end of the stick. House Map - Election Results 2010 - The New York Times, http://www.electiondataservices.com/r09wTables.pdf, Meat processing & products: Long-Term Contribution Trends | OpenSecrets. 2020-23, GWU Law School Public Law Research Paper No. Edward B. Foley, Requiring Majority Winners for Congressional Elections: Harnessing Federalism to Combat Extremism (May 10, 2021). Another option would be to average the House, Senate, and Presidential numbers, so we dont rely exclusively on the Presidential race to define a districts lean. That said, if you have any contact details for Charlie Cook or one of his confederates, Id be interested to hear a defence of his method. Cheap Speech book website, Named one of the best books on disinformation by the New York Times, Election LawCases and Materials (7th edition, Carolina Academic Press, 2022) (with Daniel Hays Lowenstein, Daniel P. Tokaji, and Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos), Election Meltdown: Dirty Tricks, Distrust, and the Threat to American Democracy (Yale University Press, 2020), Legislation, Statutory Interpretation, and Election Law: Examples & Explanations (2d ed. The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) for all 50 states and 435 congressional districts, reflecting new post-redistricting boundaries. "The House is less 'elastic' than ever not just because the share of swing seats has cratered, but because voters are splitting their tickets less frequently. First introduced in 1997, the Cook PVI measures how each state and district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole., Professor of Law and Political Science A Cook PVI score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the state or district performed about two points more Democratic in terms of two-party vote share than the nation did as a whole, while a score of R+4 means the state or district performed about four points more Republican. I just dont know about the rest of us. The Cook Partisan Voting Index is a measurement of how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans toward the Democratic or Republican P. Why do states in the North perform better than states elsewhere in terms of education? 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index. The Cook Political Report introduced the PVI in August 1997 to better gauge the competitiveness of each . As we head into next years election, lets take a look at what we are likely to see based on how partisan the states really are. The PVI value indicates a district with a partisan base above the national value for that partys 2004 presidential nominee. [4] As of 2022[update], in the House, there are 222 districts more Republican than the national average, and 206 districts more Democratic than the national average. While this can be skewed by differing perceptions of the parties at different levels of government (such as Democrats being popular locally in heavily conservative areas), this is nevertheless the basic idea behind Cooks Partisan Voting Index, on which our SSP PVI is based. We hear a lot these days about red states and blue states, but what does that really mean? Please note that the formula has been tweaked since we last released the state PVI scores in 2021. The calculations are based upon the two-party vote. The PVI is designed to reflect the unique partisan nature of each congressional district. (2) The rest of the political world will be using PVIs, which could make it harder for SSP analysis to translate to outside readers Refers to the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as used by Charlie Cook, Washingtons foremost political handicapper. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles. I think we should use a dual system of level (SVI) and parallel (Cook PVI). Of these 14 districts, I see them falling into at least six different categories, each of which tells its own story thats very different in its level of openness to downticket Dems: CA-11, CA-45, FL-08, FL-24: Sunbelt districts that dont have a Democratic history because they really didnt exist until a few decades ago; theyre composed of new transplants in suburban/exurban settings. UCLA School of Law However, they are also the highest-profile results, easily influenced by personalities and unique characteristics of individual candidates. Read More Map States that have strong connections to others states without sharing a border? NO. Im willing to convert to using the SVI exclusively. The Cook Political Report is an online source for non-partisan political analysis that many rely on for accurate political forecasting. (Emphasis added.). * Includes an independent senator who caucuses with the Democrats. 21-07, CLC on The Supreme Courts Role in the Degradation of U.S. Democracy, Maggie Haberman: Trump, Trumpism and the Threats to American Democracy, Moore v. Harper and Potential Threats to American Democracy, Fixing the Electoral Count Act to Stop Future Stolen Elections, Ive Been Way More Worried About American Democracy Than I Am Right Now, The Courts are the Only Thing Holding Back Total Election Subversion, An Arizona Court Seems to Think Voter Intimidation Isnt Voter Intimidation. A Cook PVI score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the state or district performed about two points more Democratic in terms of two-party vote share than the nation did as a whole, while a score of R+4 means the state or district performed about four points more Republican. downballot, but a favorable overall trend toward Dems. Read more about this topic: Cook Partisan Voting Index, List of PVIs, Mine was, as it were, the connecting link between wild and cultivated fields; as some states are civilized, and others half-civilized, and others savage or barbarous, so my field was, though not in a bad sense, a half-cultivated field. Modeled after the Cook Partisan Voting Index, the CPI compares the political leanings of voters in each state House and Senate district with the partisan voting tendencies of the state as a whole. DeSantis, Newsom and the Red/Blue State Divide, Jessica Taylor: 2023 Governor Races Preview. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. . The Hybrid Partisan Voting Index was introduced as an objective measurement to better gauge the competitiveness of political districts and subdivisions using presidential and gubernatorial elections as a baseline. Constitutional Commentary, Forthcoming, Harvard Public Law Working Paper No. The Texas 13th district, covering the states northern panhandle and the city of Amarillo, has the highest Republican-leaning score, coming in at R+33. of Constitutional Law, Cook provided the following explanation of a sample PVI in its 2017 PVI summary: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r

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